Prairie View is currently the clear frontrunner to win the SWAC West Division, but a loss on Saturday has drawn contenders a little bit closer.
As it stands, the Panthers are still alone atop the division at 4-1 in SWAC play and 6-3 overall. The loss obviously hurts, but it still gives Prairie View enough cushion — if they can win out — to have the highest probability of clinching the division.
Texas Southern & Grambling: Chasing Prairie View
Grambling State has emerged as the primary challenger to Prairie View, sitting at 3-2 in league play with a three-game winning streak. Their recent surge means they still control their destiny if Prairie View drops games down the stretch and the Tigers win out.
Texas Southern also sits at 3-2 in the division and 4-4 overall, matching last season’s win total with three games remaining. Texas Southern’s division title hopes hinge on both winning its remaining matchups and getting help from other teams to close the gap.
SWAC West Probability Odds
| Team | SWAC Record | Overall Record | Probability to Win West* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prairie View A&M | 4-1 | 6-3 | Extremely high (Owns tie-breaker over Grambling, Texas Southern) |
| Texas Southern | 3-2 | 4-4 | Low (Needs Prairie View and Grambling losses) |
| Grambling State | 3-2 | 6-3 | Moderate (Needs multiple upsets and win out to have shot) |
Key Games and Schedule Factors
Prairie View A&M’s remaining schedule is the easiest of the teams with a realistic shot to win the West.
The Panthers’ final three games are at Alabama A&M, followed by a pair of home games to wrap the regular season versus Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State. Those opponents have a combined winning percentage of .337.
Grambling State’s schedule is similarly less challenging, though the Tigers will face SWAC East challenger Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. If Grambling can get past the Wildcats, they will have Alcorn State and Southern left, who are 4-14 in SWAC play.
Texas Southern has the most formidable remaining opponent among the current SWAC West hopefuls. The Tigers will play at Alabama State, a team firmly in the hunt for the SWAC East championship. The odds for a win might be better if Hornets star quarterback Andrew Body is unable to play due to an injury sustained on Saturday versus Prairie View.
In total, Prairie View A&M — barring a collapse — controls the SWAC West and has the highest probability to clinch the division because it owns necessary tiebreakers over Grambling State and Texas Southern.